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Washington, DC CNN —The global economy is facing tremendous uncertainty from the war between Hamas and Israel in the Middle East, on top of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. They say Israel’s declaration of war against Hamas could be yet another catalyst for deglobalization, though the extent of that is still up in the air. If deglobalization does get exacerbated, what would that mean for inflation and monetary policy, globally? With deglobalization, you get a global economic environment that’s less competitive, and when there’s less competition, that is ultimately inflationary, causing prices to rise. Over the Covid era, China shut down production, disrupting the global supply chain, so deglobalization would bring some production back within US borders.
Persons: Wells, Bell, Brendan McKenna, that’s, Trump, there’s, Hanna Ziady, we’ve, , Avi Hasson, Patrick Harker, John Williams, Tom Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Tesla, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, Jerome Powell, Austan Goolsbee, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Trump, Hamas, Nation Central, Philadelphia Fed, US Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, National Association of Home Builders, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Procter & Gamble, United Kingdom’s, National Statistics, American Airlines, US Labor Department, Federal, Fed Locations: Washington, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, China, Wells Fargo, Gaza, deglobalization, United States, Mexico, US, Tel Aviv, New York
CNN —Hackers aligned with Vietnam tried to use social media platforms X and Facebook to install spyware on the phones of dozens of high-profile targets, including US lawmakers, United Nations officials and CNN journalists, Amnesty International said Monday. Researchers with Google’s Threat Analysis Group, which tracks state-backed hackers, told CNN the Twitter account spreading the spyware appears to be based in Vietnam. For years, cybersecurity researchers and human rights activists have documented the proliferation of spyware designed to break into mobile phones and steal their contents. “Clearly these tools are being exported from the EU to states with terrible human rights records,” Ó Cearbhaill, of Amnesty International, told CNN. “Meanwhile, if European lawmakers won’t bring consequences to reckless vendors, they need to get comfortable with being targeted,” Scott-Railton told CNN.
Persons: Democratic Sens, Gary Peters, Chris Murphy, Michael McCaul, tweeting, Cearbhaill, Ó Cearbhaill, McCaul doesn’t, Leslie Shedd, Shedd, Murphy, , Peters, Joe Biden, ” Ó, ” John Scott, ” Scott, Railton Organizations: CNN, Facebook, United Nations, Amnesty, , Democratic, Republican, House Foreign, Amnesty International’s, Washington Post, Google’s, State Department, NSO Group, Intellexa, US Commerce Department, Amnesty International, University of Toronto’s, Commerce Locations: Vietnam, Washington ,, Washington, Africa, North Macedonia, Europe
The public will continue to support them – that is until the strikes begin to affect Americans’ daily lives. CNN reached out to the Justice Department for comment but has not received a response. The US Labor Department releases August figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department reports the number of worker filings for jobless benefits in the week ended September 30. The US Labor Department releases September data on the state of the job market, including payroll gains, wage growth and the unemployment rate.
Persons: , ” Andrew Flowers, , Eva Rothenberg, Suisse’s, Jerome Powell, Patrick Harker, Michael Barr, John Williams, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Levi Strauss, Tom Barkin, Mary Daly Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN —, Gallup, Guild of America, Teamsters, Reno, United Auto Workers, UAW, Toyota, Honda, CNN, Nationwide, UBS, DOJ, US Department of Justice, Credit Suisse, “ UBS, CS, Bloomberg, Justice Department, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, McCormick, US Labor Department, Atlanta Fed, Constellation Brands, Conagra, Co, US Commerce Department, Carnival Corp Locations: Washington, United States, Hollywood, Las Vegas, Germany, Russia
And the US economy’s surprising resilience, despite 11 rate hikes, has raised hopes of a soft landing becoming a reality. “I’ve always thought that the soft landing was a plausible outcome, that there was a path to a soft landing,” he said. But historical records show that a soft landing has only occurred once in the 1990s, or perhaps even a handful of times. The US Commerce Department releases its final estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product. The US Commerce Department releases August data on household income, spending, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Persons: it’s, Jerome Powell, Powell, “ I’ve, , , Powell’s, ” “ Jerome Powell, ” Quincy Krosby, Krosby, ” Krosby, Matt Egan, ” Neil Bradley, “ We’ve, Read, Christine Lagarde, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Lisa Cook, John Williams Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Fed, LPL, CNN, Corporate, US Chamber of Commerce, European Central Bank, Costco, Global, Board, Survey, US Commerce Department, Micron, Nike, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Carnival Corp, University of Michigan, New York Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington
Inflation is expected to slow because of these trends
  + stars: | 2023-09-17 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Washington, DC CNN —US inflation has slowed steadily from its four-decade peak last June, and it’s expected to cool further thanks to easing car prices and rents. Despite the expected inflation drop, she said investors anticipate the Fed will keep interest rates steady and not cut them anytime soon. “It may take a little bit longer than expected for inflation to come down to 2%, and inflation being in a 2-3% range next year is reasonable,” she said. Tuesday: Canada’s statistics agency releases August inflation data. The UK’s Office for National Statistics releases August inflation data.
Persons: we’re, ” José Torres, , , Sarah House, Saira Malik, Michelle Toh, ” Read, General Mills, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Interactive Brokers, CNN, , , United Auto Workers, CPI, San, San Francisco Fed, National Association of Home Builders, US Commerce Department, Japan’s Ministry of Finance, FedEx, General, National Statistics, Federal Reserve, Darden Restaurants, The Bank of England, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, The Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Global Locations: Washington, Wells Fargo, San Francisco, China, Michelle Toh ., Japan’s
The problem with labor data in understanding inflation
  + stars: | 2023-09-10 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
The central bank will continue to pay close attention to the state of the labor market, specifically on wages, as it focuses on defeating inflation, but there’s only so much that labor data can reveal about price increases. Mainly, it’s that wage figures are great at gauging inflation’s progress, but they’re lousy at forecasting its future. Financial markets have shifted back to a “bad news is good news” way of perceiving economic data and will continue to react to labor data, but ultimately, it’s the actual inflation data that matter most to the Fed. The issue of labor figures in forecasting inflation lies with productivity data. The Federal Reserve releases August data on industrial production.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, , Quincy Krosby, ” Agron Nicaj, it’s, Anna Cooban, ” James Athey Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Chicago Fed, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, Financial, LPL Financial, CNN, Oracle, National Federation of Independent Business, National Statistics, US Labor Department, Adobe, European Central Bank, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Lennar Homes, The University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Saudi Arabia
Hong Kong CNN —Shares in SMIC, China’s largest contract chipmaker, plunged on Thursday, after two US congressmen called on the White House to further restrict export sales to the company. The comments came after Huawei Technologies introduced the Mate 60 Pro, a Chinese smartphone powered by an advanced chip that is believed to have been made by SMIC. TechInsights, a research organization based in Canada specializing in semiconductors, revealed shortly after the launch that the smartphone contained a new 5G Kirin 9000s processor developed specifically for Huawei by SMIC. Gallagher was quoted as saying SMIC may have violated US sanctions, as this chip likely could not be produced without US technology. Hua Hong Semiconductor, China’s second largest chip foundry, tumbled 4.8%.
Persons: SMIC, ” Jefferies, Qilai Shen, Mike Gallagher, Gallagher, , Texas Republican Michael McCaul, , Gina Raimondo, Raimondo, SMIC’s, Biden Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, House, Huawei Technologies, Kirin, Huawei, SMIC, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, Bloomberg, Getty, US Commerce Department, Reuters, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Texas Republican, Foreign Affairs Committee, US, US Commerce, Huahong Semiconductor, CNN, Jefferies Locations: China, Hong Kong, SMIC, China’s, Chinese, Shanghai, United States, Canada
CNN —The economic relationship between the US and China is mutually beneficial and opening lines of communication is key to maintaining it, US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told CNN’s Dana Bash on Sunday. She is the fourth cabinet member to visit China this year and the first commerce secretary to visit China in five years. China hit back earlier this summer with its own export controls on gallium and germanium, raw materials essential for producing chips. But during her China visit, Raimondo was clear the US does not want to completely decouple from China when it comes to these semiconductors and chips. “We have plenty of tools in our toolbox … export controls, outbound investment screening, tariffs, countervailing duties.
Persons: Gina Raimondo, CNN’s Dana Bash, Raimondo, , Biden, ” Raimondo, , , Laura He, Michelle Toh Organizations: CNN, US, Union, Department of, US Commerce Department Locations: China, “ State
Washington, DC CNN —Last week’s economic data increasingly gave investors hope that the Federal Reserve could hold interest rates steady this month, following a hike in July that brought rates to their highest level in 22 years. It’s hard to say definitively if or when the central bank will hike interest rates again this year. The Fed could hold rates steady for the rest of the year if both the job market and the broader economy continue to slow, helping bring down inflation. Higher for longer means keeping interest rates elevated for a prolonged period. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases August inflation data.
Persons: hasn’t, ” Leslie Thompson, Thompson, Jerome Powell, Powell, Susan Collins, Powell’s Jackson, there’s, Raphael Bostic, Olesya Dmitracova, ” Patrick Hummel, David Lesne, Juan Perez, Carrascosa, Barnes & Noble Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal, Financial, Spectrum Wealth Management, CNN, Fed, Kansas City, Boston, Yahoo, Finance, Atlanta Fed, Volkswagen, Renault, UBS, French, Swiss, Barnes &, The Reserve Bank of Australia, US Commerce Department, Eagle, Express, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Bank of Canada, US Labor Department, Kroger, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Cape Town , South Africa, Europe
Hong Kong CNN —US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo urged American businesses to keep investing in China on Wednesday, even after saying some US firms had called the world’s second biggest economy “uninvestable.”Speaking at an American Chamber of Commerce event in Shanghai, the secretary encouraged companies to continue expanding in the country. “The message is to continue to do what you’re doing,” Raimondo told executives. Eric Zheng, president of AmCham Shanghai, told CNN after Raimondo’s appearance that he had not been hearing the term “uninvestable” from businesses on the ground. “In order to be globally competitive, they have to be in this market despite all the challenges.”Warm wordsRaimondo is the first US commerce secretary to visit China in five years. Andy Wong/APThe issue highlights the tightrope the commerce secretary is walking.
Persons: Gina Raimondo, ” Raimondo, Raimondo, Aly Song, , Wang Wenbin, Li Qiang, Antony Blinken, Janet Yellen, John Kerry, Eric Zheng, Andy Wong, Wang Wentao, Lifeng, Yellen, Foreign busineses, Chen Jining, Nazak Nikakhtar, Trump, Zheng, , , Jadyn Sham, Alex Stambaugh Organizations: Hong Kong CNN — US, American, of, Reuters, Shanghai, Biden, CNN, Covid, US Commerce Department, US Department of Commerce, Foreign, Department, Department of Commerce Locations: Hong Kong, China, Shanghai, Beijing, United States, decouple,
Investors and economists are bullish that consumer spending, the US economy’s main engine, won’t deteriorate too much, which should help stocks avoid a massive sell-off this year. The US Labor Department releases July figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Commerce Department releases July data on household spending, income and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended Aug. 26. Friday: The US Labor Department releases August figures on the labor market, including monthly payroll gains, wage growth, and the unemployment rate.
Persons: “ We’re, we’ve, ” Matthew Palazzolo, we’re, We’re, ” Palazzolo, pare, It’s, Biden, Jerome Powell, Sinead Colton Grant, Anna Cooban Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, US, Bernstein Private Wealth Management, CNN, Nvidia, Research, Fed, Kansas City, San Francisco Fed, Mellon, International Monetary Fund, Global, US Labor Department, Board, US Commerce Department, National Association of Realtors, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, P Global, Institute for Supply Management Locations: Washington, Wells Fargo, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, American, Germany, Europe, Berlin
Some investors are betting on rate cuts as soon as early next year, perhaps on expectations that the economy might soon deteriorate. If unemployment spikes because of higher interest rates, for example, the Fed would likely cut rates to stem job losses under its mandate of maximum employment. The Fed’s tough talk has rattled the bond market, helping push up long-dated yields. In addition to the possibility of cutting rates because of an economic downturn, the Fed could also cut rates if inflation slows too much. “If the Fed sees that inflation goes below the 2% target, they could start decreasing interest rates, but I don’t think they are going to start decreasing interest rates until that happens,” said Eugenio Alemán, chief economist at Raymond James.
Persons: there’s, Rather, Austan Goolsbee, Mike Hackett, they’ve, , Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, Melissa Brown, China’s ‘ Lehman, Laura, Mengchen Zhang, Technology —, Zhongrong, Read, Thomas Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Kansas City Fed’s, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Treasury, Nationwide, CNN, Fed, Service, KBC Corporation, Xianheng, Science, Technology, National Association of Realtors, Body, Nvidia, Kansas City, Global, US Commerce Department, Labor Department, Central Bank Locations: Washington, , China, BJ’s, Abercrombie, Kansas
Washington, DC CNN —Federal Reserve officials meet next month to determine whether to raise interest rates for the 12th time to cool the economy or hold them steady. Some officials think the Fed has already raised its benchmark lending rate enough to curb inflation, but others think it’s too soon to tap the brakes. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker echoed that sentiment in a speech last week, saying “I believe we may be at the point where we can be patient and hold rates steady.”Other Fed officials agree. “Inflation is still significantly above” the Fed’s 2% target, Fed governor Michelle Bowman said last week at an event in Atlanta. The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its July policymaking meeting as well as July figures on industrial production.
Persons: ” Rajeev Sharma, , Jerome Powell, Patrick Harker, , Raphael Bostic, there’s, Michelle Bowman, ” Carol Schleif, ” Schleif, Katie Lobosco, Brinker Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN — Federal Reserve, Key Private Bank, CNN, , Fed, Financial, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, BMO Family Office, Internal Revenue, Tax Administration, IRS, Kansas City Tax Processing, Fresno Tax Processing, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Depot, US Commerce Department, Target, Federal Reserve, Walmart Locations: Washington, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Atlanta, Kansas, Fresno
CNN —China has lifted pandemic-era restrictions on group tours for more countries, including key markets such as the United States, Japan, South Korea and Australia, in a potential boon for their tourism industries. Prior to the pandemic, mainland Chinese tourists spent more than any other country’s tourists when abroad, clocking up a combined $255 billion in 2019 with group tours estimated to account for roughly 60% of that. Just how much outbound Chinese tourism will bounce back for the latest group of countries remains to be seen. “The opening of group travel from China to the U.S. is a significant milestone,” said Adam Burke, head of the Los Angeles Tourism and Convention Board. China has never publicly acknowledged limiting group tours to South Korea.
Persons: Gina Raimondo, , Fumio Kishida, , Don Farrell, Steve Saxon, Adam Burke, Organizations: CNN, US Commerce Department, Japanese, Trade, Tourism, Weibo, McKinsey & Co, , Los Angeles Tourism, Reuters Locations: China, United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Germany, Canada, Thailand, Russia, Cuba, Argentina, Nepal, France, Portugal, Brazil, Xinjiang, Los Angeles, U.S
But aside from simply skirting a recession, it’s not obvious what the economy would look like in a soft landing. And who even declares that the Fed has officially defied the odds and achieved a soft landing? The main aspect of a soft landing, according to economists, is the absence of a recession, which is determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER.) In a soft landing, the job market has to remain intact. The other key feature of a soft landing is for the Fed to successfully control inflation, but that’s open to some interpretation.
Persons: we’ve, , Kayla Bruun, , Julia Pollak, ” Pollak, Josh Markman, cooldown, Austan Goolsbee, ” Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Patrick Harker, Armour, Ralph Lauren Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Fed, National Bureau of Economic Research, Morning, Atlanta, ZipRecruiter, Labor, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, , Tyson Foods, UPS, Fox, Restaurant Brands, The National Federation of Independent Business, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Disney, US Labor Department, National Statistics, University of Michigan Locations: Washington
The long advertising winter could be coming to an end in the second half of this year. There are tentative signs that the advertising winter is starting to thaw. Meta, which derives more than 98% of its revenue from advertising, reported revenue well ahead of analysts' estimates for the second quarter. To be sure, some pure-play advertising companies remain challenged. Indeed, on Thursday, the US Commerce Department said the US economy grew by 2.4% in the second quarter, which was up from 2% in the first quarter.
Persons: spenders, Kimberly, Clark, Brian Wieser, Groupe, IPG, Arthur Sadoun, It's, they're Organizations: Companies, Meta, Google, PepsiCo, Wall, Tech, Microsoft, US Commerce Department Locations: Madison
The global economy stands to gain if Washington and Beijing can mend fences, but analysts say this appears unlikely. Here are four things likely to make it harder for Yellen to repair US-China ties, and one thing keeping the relationship going. Sequoia’s executives said in a statement that it has become “increasingly complex” to run a decentralized global investment business. On Wednesday, US pharmaceutical firm Moderna (MRNA)signed a deal to make its first major investment in China. “Both sides are ramping up commercial restrictions in the name of national security and national interests,” she said.
Persons: Janet Yellen, China, ” Wei Jianguo, , Anna Ashton, Biden, Beijing’s, Wei, Capvision, Xi Jinping’s, , Li Qiang, Xi, Alex Capri, ” Ashton, , Jennifer Hansler, Wayne Chang, Bryan Mena Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Eurasia Group, Micron Technology, China Daily, Analysts, China, Capvision, Bain & Company, Group, Forrester Research, Ontario, Republicans, Hawks, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Xinhua, US Commerce Department, , National University of Singapore Business School, Moderna Locations: Hong Kong, Beijing, United States, China, Chinese, Washington, Japan, Europe, Shanghai, New York, decouple, Moscow, Ukraine, Russia, Taiwan, Tianjin
Lockheed (LMT) Martin Corporation and Raytheon (RTN) Missiles & Defense, a subsidiary of Raytheon (RTN) Technologies Corp, will be added to China’s sanctions list, its Ministry of Commerce said in a Thursday statement. That move came after American forces downed what it called a Chinese surveillance balloon that entered its airspace late last month. Thursday’s Chinese commerce ministry statement made no mention of the downed balloon, nor the US sanctions on Chinese entities. Instead, it cited “national sovereignty” as the catalyst for the penalties while highlighting both companies’ sales of arms to Taiwan. China maintains that the balloon found over the United States was a civilian research aircraft accidentally blown off course.
CNN —The US Commerce Department is restricting six Chinese companies tied to the Chinese army’s aerospace programs from obtaining US technology without government authorization. US fighter jets shot down the balloon, which American officials have since claimed is part of an extensive surveillance program run by the Chinese military. The six companies are: Beijing Nanjiang Aerospace Technology; China Electronics Technology Group Corporation 48th Research Institute; Dongguan Lingkong Remote Sensing Technology; Eagles Men Aviation Science and Technology Group; Guangzhou Tian-Hai-Xiang Aviation Technology; and Shanxi Eagles Men Aviation Science and Technology Group. The inclusion of the companies on the Commerce Department’s “Entity List,” sends “a clear message to companies, governments, and other stakeholders globally that the entities on the list present a threat to national security,” the statement said. “Today’s action makes clear that entities that seek to harm US national security and sovereignty will be cut off from accessing US technologies.”CNN has reached out to the companies involved and the Chinese government for comment.
Hong Kong CNN —China has hit back after reports that Washington is moving to further restrict sales of American technology to Huawei. “China is deeply concerned,” Mao Ning, a spokesperson for the country’s foreign ministry, said at a press conference Tuesday. The following year, the US government expanded on those curbs by seeking to cut Huawei off from chip suppliers using US-made technology. US officials have argued that Huawei poses a risk to US national security. Western security experts, however, have said that China’s national security and intelligence laws require Chinese companies to comply with demands for information.
Dell is planning to halt the use of Chinese semiconductor chips by 2024, per Nikkei. The PC giant also plans to slash the amount of other made-in-China parts in its products. It's not just made-in-China chips made by Chinese companies. Other than chips, Dell has also asked suppliers of other electronic parts — such as modules and circuit boards — to ramp up production capacity in countries outside China, per Nikkei. Even tech giant Apple was burned late last year when its iPhone output was hit by the country's zero-COVID drive.
One dramatic, and potentially disruptive aspect of the rules is the ban on American citizens and legal residents working with Chinese chip firms. The ban could lead to a mass resignation of top executives and core research staff working at Chinese chip firms, which will hit the industry hard, Dong from Georgetown University said. So far it’s not clear exactly how many American workers there are in China’s domestic chip industry. At Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment China (AMEC), one of the country’s largest semiconductor equipment manufacturers, at least seven executives, including founder and chairman Gerald Yin, hold US citizenship, the latest company documents show. But some Western suppliers have already started preparing to halt sales to China in response to the US export curbs.
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